US takes hardline on North Korea, South China Sea

Bali: Tentative steps by North and South Korea to repair relations are not enough to warrant a return to multination nuclear disarmament talks, the Obama administration said at an Asian security conference on Saturday, where it also took a tough line on resolving heightened tensions in the South China Sea.

Declaring the United States a "resident power" with vital strategic interests throughout the Asia-Pacific, US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said North Korea must do more to improve ties with the South before Washington will consider resuming six-party talks aimed at getting Pyongyang to abandon nuclear weapons in return for concessions.

In addition, Hillary laid out specific guidelines for the peaceful settlement of competing territorial claims by China and its Southeast Asian neighbours in the South China Sea, where she said such disputes are threatening the peace and security that has driven the region's economic growth and prosperity.

Also on the agenda at Saturday's talks on the Indonesian resort island of Bali was Myanmar, which Hillary said has reached a "critical juncture”.

The new civilian government, which took over late last year after a half-century of military rule, needs to make "concrete, measurable progress" in bringing about democratic reforms if it wants to win the confidence of the international community.

That includes releasing more than 2,000 political prisoners and holding meaningful dialogue with its political opponents.

The meeting opened with a buzz, with South Korea's Foreign Minister, Kim Sung-hwan, and the North's Pak Ui Chun walking casually into the conference hall together.

A day before, their countries' top nuclear negotiators met for the first time since nuclear disarmament talks collapsed three years ago, opening the door for dialogue and a potential return, eventually, to more negotiations between the two Koreas, the US, China, Japan and Russia.

Hillary told diplomats from 26 other Asian and European countries that she was encouraged to see the change.

"But we remain firm that in order for six-party talks to resume, North Korea must take steps to improve North-South relations," she said. "North Korea continues to present a critical proliferation challenge to the international community and to threaten regional stability with its provocative actions."

Since the last round of talks, North Korea has conducted a second nuclear test and revealed a uranium enrichment facility that could give it another way to make atomic bombs. Recent North Korean threats against Seoul's conservative government include a vow to retaliate over South Korean soldiers' use of pictures of the ruling North Korean family for target practice.

Ahead of the conference, China and its Southeast Asian neighbours also agreed to a preliminary plan to resolve territorial disputes in the potentially resource-rich South China Sea.

China claims the sea — of tremendous strategic importance to everyone because one-third of the world's shipping transits through it — in its entirety. The Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia loudly disagree.

There have been several flare-ups in the waterway in recent months, with Beijing usually accused of being the instigator.

Hillary urged all parties to show restraint and to comply with international law "and resolve their disputes through peaceful means”. It's vital, she said, that they work together.

As a starting point, the US wants all nations to map out their claims in terms consistent with customary international law, a senior US official said on condition he not be named, adding that many of the claims seem to be "exaggerated”.

North Korea's newly appointed envoy, Ri Yong Ho, meanwhile, said on Friday that he and his South Korean counterpart, Wi Sung-lac, agreed during their meeting to work together to quickly restart nuclear talks.

Wi, who described the talks as "productive" and "helpful”, confirmed the agreement and said he and Ri would continue their efforts.

North Korea stands to get badly needed aid and other concessions if it returns to the talks and has indicated in recent months that it may be ready.

North Korea's main ally, China, has been pressing for a speedy resumption of the talks. The US and other countries have held out, saying that meaningful North-South dialogue must occur first. A senior US official welcomed Friday's meeting but said it remains to be seen if the rapprochement is enough to warrant a return to the table.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss closed-door diplomacy, said Hillary and the foreign ministers of Japan and South Korea would meet in Bali on Saturday to assess the situation and plot a way forward. The official would not predict if a decision on resuming the six-party talks would be made at the meeting.

In a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, Hillary affirmed "our mutual desire for peace and stability on the Korean peninsula" but offered no hint on whether the US would agree to resume the nuclear talks.

Yang, however, signalled China's intense interest in getting things back on track. "Anything we can do together to promote better atmosphere and good dialogue among the parties concerned and to work together to restart the six-party talks would be in the best interests of peace, stability and security of the region," he said.

The disarmament talks have been stalled since 2008, when North Korea walked out to protest international criticism of a prohibited long-range rocket launch. Tensions between the North and South have remained high ever since.

'South China Sea disputes could cause war in Asia’

Canberra: Risks are growing that incidents at sea involving China could lead to war in Asia, potentially drawing in the United States and other powers, an Australian think tank warned on Tuesday.

The Lowy Institute said in a report that the Chinese military's risk-taking behaviour in the South and East China Seas, along with the country's resource needs and greater assertiveness, have raised the chances of an armed conflict.

"The sea lanes of Indo-Pacific Asia are becoming more crowded, contested and vulnerable to armed strife. Naval and Air Forces are being strengthened amid shifting balances of economic strategic weight," report authors Rory Medcalf and Raoul Heinrichs wrote.

"China's frictions with the United States, Japan and India are likely to persist and intensify. As the number and tempo of incidents increases, so does the likelihood that an episode will escalate to armed confrontation, diplomatic crisis or possibly even conflict," the report said.

The study on major powers and maritime security in Indo-Pacific Asia was published as China prepares to unveil its first aircraft carrier, perhaps this week, a development that has added to worries in the region about China's military expansion and reach.

Earlier this month, China sent its biggest civilian patrol ship to the South China Sea. That rattled the Philippines, which makes competing claims to some waters thought to hold vast oil and gas reserves.

On Monday, the US Senate passed a resolution that deplored China's use of force against Vietnamese and Philippine ships in South China Sea.

Senator Jim Webb, chair of an east Asian and Pacific affairs subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said "a growing number of nations around the South China Sea are now voicing serious concerns about China's pattern of intimidation."

"Danger zone"

Ian Storey, an expert on maritime security in Asia, said the report was a "balanced and credible assessment" of the risks of a military clash in the South China Sea as "competition over territorial claims, maritime boundaries and natural resources heats up, and as China adopts more aggressive tactics."

"The complete absence of confidence-building measures and conflict prevention mechanisms between the various claimants suggests that it is only a question of time before an incident at sea escalates into a more serious confrontation, with worrying implications for regional stability," said Storey, a security analyst at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Medcalf and Heinrichs said more maritime patrols and intrusive surveillance, nationalism and resources disputes will together make it harder to manage arguments over maritime sovereignty.

"All of these factors are making Asia a danger zone for incidents at sea: close-range encounters involving vessels and aircraft from competing powers, typically in sensitive or contested zones," the report said.

The report detailed tensions between Beijing and Tokyo, which stemmed from an April 2010 Chinese naval exercise near the Japanese islands of Okinawa and were exacerbated by Japan's arrest of a Chinese fisherman whose trawler had rammed a coastguard vessel.

Those incidents provoked a diplomatic crisis during which China cut its exports of crucial rare earth minerals to Japan, the United States' closest ally in the region.

Despite initial signs of warmer bilateral ties following the March tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan, a long-running dispute over a chain of isles which are close to potentially significant oil and gas reserves.

"Helicopter buzzing incidents have continued, with Japan deploring as especially insensitive an instance that occurred in the weeks following the March disaster," the report said.

It said Beijing has caused concern in Southeast Asia over its "core interest" claim on the South China Sea and in Australia about China's possible future security behaviour, while the emergence of competition between India and China at sea is "only a matter of time”.

Medcalf and Heinrichs said new efforts were needed to build regional confidence and to involve China in a continued military dialogue with the United States and Japan.

They also said maritime security hotlines were needed between the US and China, and Japan and China, to allow real-time responses to any incidents.